Opinion: Post-Campbell B.C. Liberals leading NDP, poll results show heart

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Opinion: Post-Campbell B.C. Liberals leading NDP, poll results show
Opposition can take heart it trails by just five points with an interim leader



At the depths of the opinion polls last year, the B.C. Liberals trailed the Opposition New Democratic Party by 25 points, a potentially ruinous showing that had even longtime Gordon Campbell loyalists considering it was time for him to go.

Then he did. Then the New Democrats, already grumbling about their leader Carole James, forced her out as well, triggering leadership change in both major parties.

Less than half a year later, the polls have changed dramatically.

Liberals 43 per cent, New Democrats 38, according to an Angus Reid survey released this week, a shift of 30 points (Liberals up 19, NDP down 11) since a similar Reid survey last October.

Most of the movement occurred before Christy Clark assumed the leadership of the Liberals.

The Reid organization commenced the latest sampling of opinion just two days after she took the oath of office as premier.

For their part, New Democrats can take comfort in being a still-competitive five points back with a low-profile interim leader, New Westminster MLA Dawn Black.

With three potentially decisive weeks still to go in their leadership contest, the Reid survey also supplied a ranking of the NDP leadership hopefuls in the eyes of the general public.

"Who do you think would be a good choice or a bad choice to replace Carole James as leader of the B.C. New Democratic Party?" asked the pollster.

MLA Mike Farnworth was rated a "good choice" by 43 per cent of B.C. residents in general and by 54 per cent of those who said they had voted for the NDP in the last election.

MLA Adrian Dix trailed by 16 points with members of the public, by 13 points among NDP supporters.

The results had the Farnworth camp trumpeting that despite Dix's well-cultivated following among party activists, he's not even the first choice among those who vote NDP.

Moreover, as they note, people who care who wins this contest.

Less than half of the prospective NDP voters responding to the Reid survey said, "I will vote for the NDP regardless of their leader."

More than half answered, "I am leaning toward voting for the B.C NDP, but it depends on who they pick as leader."

The latest numbers put Farnworth in a similar position to Christy Clark in the Liberal leadership, in that he has led every survey of public opinion since the contest began.

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His candidacy differs in other respects. She had only one endorsement from members of the caucus she sought to lead; he has many. She was a true outsider. He is a likable insider.

Plus it remains to be seen whether popular standing in the polls carries the same weight in the NDP, a party that is less of a coalition of convenience than the Liberals, and more of a movement.

Judging from online comments, some Dix supporters would appear to regard the opinion polls as a plot, never mind that Reid was the first pollster to document the NDP resurgence after the introduction of the carbon tax in the summer of 2008, and he called the 2009 election within a couple of points.

More seriously, Dix's supporters argue that he would bring out voters who don't normally vote, thereby confounding traditional voting patterns in the province. For him the most encouraging result was probably the finding that the party has a 15-point lead with voters aged 18-34, a group he has courted with promises of grants to improve access to higher education.

As to the other significant candidate, MLA John Horgan remains in third place, with the support of 15 per cent of the general public, 23 per cent among self-identified NDP supporters.

He picked up endorsements Wednesday from MLAs Gary Coons and Robin Austin, bringing to four the number of his supporters from the ranks of the baker's dozen of dissidents who forced out James.

Five others from that group support Farnworth. None has yet endorsed Dix, giving rise to speculation that as dissidents, they are hesitant because of his former role as chief of staff to former my-way-or-the-doorway premier Glen Clark.

Horgan continues to position himself as the compromise candidate in the race, more moderate than Dix, tougher than Farnworth.

A plausible claim, too. But like George Abbott in the Liberal race, he may be too far back to become one of the two finalists in the vote on April 17.

Ask a B.C. Liberal who they'd like to see win the leadership, the answer is invariably Adrian Dix. Ideological in content, brittle in style; they figure he'd be the perfect foil for their relentlessly cheerful leader.

But in counting on a Dix win, the B.C. Liberals may be engaging in the same kind of wishful thinking as the NDP in their leadership race.

New Democrats wanted so much for Kevin Falcon to win, they launched an attack website ("Are you Falcon kidding me?") before the votes were even cast in the Liberal race.

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The Angus Reid Public Opinion survey was conducted online among 807 British Columbians March 16-17.

The margin of error is said to be plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Details at www. visioncritical.com, the firm's website.

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Premier Christy Clark