[溫哥華本地新聞] Vancouver’s race for mayor neck campaign, separate, points, turned

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Vancouver’s race for mayor neck and neck, poll finds

Only four points separate Robertson and LaPointe, according to poll



Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vancouver+race+mayor+neck+neck+poll+finds/10368928/story.html#ixzz3IluP7Do8
What once might have been an uphill campaign for Non-Partisan Association mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe has turned into a horse race with Vision Vancouver’s Gregor Robertson, according to a new Insights West survey.
With just five days left in the campaign, the poll suggests Robertson holds only a slight edge over LaPointe, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.
But with 27 per cent of voters still undecided, many of them in the young and middle-aged categories, the race is anyone’s to win, said Mario Canseco, vice-president of public affairs at Insights West.
The online poll of 505 eligible Vancouver residents was conducted Nov. 6-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
The survey took place as there were sharpening attacks from both sides that included allegations of corruption, a counter-action of a defamation lawsuit, and duelling endorsements in an effort to shore up supporters.
LaPointe, a former journalist, went from being a relative unknown in the summer to now being a recognized candidate, picking up 19 points since the last Insights West poll in August, when 41 per cent said they didn’t know who he was. Now that number is just 12 per cent, and those who have positive opinions about him have jumped from 24 to 43 per cent.
Robertson — who still is the preferred choice among women and voters under the age of 34 — has seen a six per cent decline in overall approval since October.
Meena Wong, the Coalition of Progressive Electors candidate, has nine per cent support among the decided voters surveyed.
Canseco said the shift appears to be taking place in the Vision camp, as one in four voters who supported Robertson in 2011 appear to have shifted alliances to LaPointe.
Presented with a reproduction of the ballot and asked who they would vote for, 31 per cent said Robertson, 28 per cent LaPointe, and six per cent Wong.
“Both have an opportunity to win. It is no longer about Meena Wong taking all the votes away from Gregor. She is taking some, but it is not going to be the main factor,” Canseco said. “Once you factor in the margin of error, it could be a tie or it could be a slight lead for the NPA. It is probably what Vision had not expected when this began.”
For Vision, it all comes down to redoubling their efforts to reconnect with their identified base and keep them from moving to LaPointe, Canseco said. The NPA, on the other hand, only needs to convince three or five per cent of the undecided voters they are the better choice.
“It will be a close one, and because of the things we’ve had over the last week — the lawsuit, whether you can use certain words or not, it has been galvanizing the race. There are more people paying attention to the race than a month ago,” he said.
While most voters still believe Robertson is better suited to resolve issues on housing (27 per cent to 19 per cent for LaPointe), and they like his work on the environment (45 per cent), arts and culture (32 per cent), transportation (31 per cent) and housing (26 per cent), LaPointe is ahead on city finances (32 per cent) and crime (26 per cent).

Strikingly, it is on the issue of housing where young voters are most conflicted over who could do a better job, with 52 per cent saying they are not sure who is the best choice.
“That is Vision’s constituency. They are the ones who need to come out and show a strong level of support for Gregor and more than half of them are saying, ‘We don’t know who is the best person to cover housing,’” Canseco said.
“This is the top issue facing the city and it has been one of the major discussions of the campaign. This really speaks to the changing nature of the Vision Vancouver base. You may have been very happy with the bike lanes and the greenest city initiatives when you were a student and you were graduating. But now you are three or six years older than when you first voted and you are looking for a house or a place to live and there is nothing coming out of the candidates that is more than what other candidates offer.”
LaPointe has also taken the lead on who those polled believe could better run the city’s finances (32 per cent versus 24 per cent for Robertson).

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“This is somebody who six months ago nobody thought would run for mayor and now he’s ahead of the sitting mayor after six years. It really speaks about how he has been connecting with that part of the electorate,” Canseco said.

“This shows me that there is a lot of appetite, especially for some Vision voters who may have been disenchanted by what has happened over the last three years to look elsewhere this time.”

On overall performance, voters are clearly divided by age on what they think about Robertson. Those 18-34 particularly like his record (56 per cent), but 61 per cent of those over 55 disapprove of his performance. The crucial middle group, those 35-54, are divided equally.

When it comes to momentum, the race is clearly with LaPointe. When asked how their opinions had changed over the last month, only six per cent said it had improved of Robertson. One in four said it had worsened, and 60 per cent said it had stayed the same.

Wong made a marginal gain; 16 per cent their opinions of her had improved, while 12 per cent said they were worse, with 48 per cent staying the same.

But for LaPointe, 22 per cent were impressed with him, while 18 per cent were not and 45 per cent stayed the same.

Canseco said it appears Wong’s identified voters are also not nearly as loyal and may change their vote, more so than is the case for Robertson and LaPointe.

Most decided voters who are supporting either Robertson (69 per cent) or LaPointe (79 per cent) say they are certain of their choice. But 42 per cent of those who support Wong said they could change their minds before voting day.

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Mayor Gregor Robertson and the NPA’s Kirk LaPointe (right) shake hands at the mayoral debate at Langara College last month. A new poll shows the race for mayor is too close to call.