大溫樓市「小陽春」 日均交易68間增75% 交易量, Board

ricrick

大溫樓市「小陽春」 日均交易68間增75%  

【明報專訊】大溫哥華地產局(Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver)主席瓦特(Dave Watt)昨日在一場探討「現在是否為買屋或賣屋時機」研討會中，帶來大溫房市「早春」的氣息。瓦特說，進入2月後每天大溫平均房屋交易量有68間，比1 月的每日平均38間，增加了75%，呈現「小陽春」，顯示大溫房地產市道似乎並不如外界想像的糟。

瓦特說，他同意房價在去年8月到達了最高點後開始下滑，而今年1月的交易量也萎縮至762間，是1998年來所見最低。不過，他卻要提醒計劃買屋人士，在目前感覺大家不看好房市的情況下，去年11月大溫房屋待售存量為1.9萬間，但到了1月底，卻減少至1.4萬間，存量減少，對房地產復蘇是好現象。顯示這個市場重新有了動能。

瓦特並非是昨日的專家當中唯一看好大溫房地產市場的發言者。卑詩省房地產協會(BC Real Estate Association)副主席莫洛尼(Moss Moloney)指出，他自己也是資深地產經紀，上月他賣出在蘭里市的一間獨立屋，他一次收到7份標書(offer)，其實，對很多首次購屋人士來說，現在按揭利息低，房價又下跌，現在可能是進場的適當機會。

瓦特和莫洛尼兩人對於房地產市道的樂觀分析，一度引起在場人士的質疑，有參加人士問兩人，到底知不知道現在的金融危機影響力道有多大，未來大溫房地產是否如有預測指的在未來一年下跌10%，或是下跌更多？

與會專家之一，加拿大借貸及房屋公司(CMHC)資深市場分析師阿特馬徹(Robyn Adamache)則答覆說，CMHC曾根據經濟學方法預測，今年大溫地區房價還會再跌10%，不過，並不代表一旦出現新的壞消息不會影響對跌幅的預測。

阿特馬徹說，例如，上周在全國及全省流失職位的統計未發表前，經濟學家本來還看好卑詩省在就業方面的數據，應該好過全國平均，但現在看起來也未必然。

不過，阿特馬徹說，好消息是，在另一方面，現在累積的房屋庫存量，雖然增加，但比起1997年當時溫哥華房價下跌時、柏文單位待售房屋高達5000多間(溫哥華都會區)，今年1月只有2000間，待售庫存問題比1998年時好很多。

教授估計樓價約一年後反彈

與會的卑詩大學商學院榮譽教授漢密爾頓(Stanley Hamilton)則同意，卑詩省的房地產情況與美國有很大不同，雖然開始有「過度興建」(overbuilt)問題，但情況並不能與美國相比，只能算是輕微。

漢密爾頓同意CMHC的預測，即樓價有可能會在未來1年下跌10%，等於距離樓價最高峰下跌20%時才會反彈，至於時機，距離現在約為1年時間。

溫哥華貿易局昨日召開太平洋財務論壇(Pacific Financial Forum 2009)，邀請房地產方面經濟學家、業界代表，共同探討有關買屋及賣屋時機。

ricrick

樓價是否到低現在反彈呢？

MyOMy

弹吾弹得起要睇銀行放吾放水。

Nam

They are just trying to release positive news and hoping that will boast up the house market....

I don't believe itw ill boost up within this year as the economy is sliding...

fibbi

Even I have the $, I won't buy yet. Will wait after the olympic.

吳孟達

Try to get the stuff when you think it is the time, or when you think it hit the bottom...

Here is my analysis:
Vancouver is a special area. Many "rich" immigrants especially the mainland Chinese group are living in Greater Vancouver area. They do have money to "invest" or "shop". Once something reached a desire price, they will come out and buy....

Just like those 25% discounted condo in Richmond, they sold it within couple hours.
So, is Economy really bad? Yes...... but it can not apply to Vancouver.

People are just waiting for their "desire" price and they will come out.

I had a personal experience. There was a big sale in Acura last 2 weeks. I went there at night and found that the MDX was having $10,000 discount. After price negotiation and stuff, I finally got my car. When I try to do insurance at the dealer, I have to wait as all 3 insurance agents are very busy with other customers. I asked the sales how many car they sold that night. They told me they sold 11 cars that day.

So, people just waiting for the best time.

If economy is bad, even a discount or a very low price will not do any good.

Just my 2 cents!


---- A sudden very serious Uncle Tat

[ 本帖最後由 吳孟達 於 2009-2-12 13:45 編輯 ]

Nam

原帖由 吳孟達 於 2009-2-12 14:43 發表
Try to get the stuff when you think it is the time, or when you think it hit the bottom...

Here is my analysis:
Vancouver is a special area. Many "rich" immigrants especially the mainland Chinese gro ...

I agree.  Chinese always conserve money when economy is blooming. (Ok, Most Chinese in case mr. T give me lecture).

I think most people are waiting for the price to drop to a desire price.
My friend is a CFA but he rather rent a place and wait for the price to drop..
Then you can imagine how many Chinese out there are doing the same thing la.