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標題: Thank you BP [打印本頁]

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-15 12:24 標題: Thank you BP

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-15 12:27

what;s that

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-15 12:28

牛哥我膜拜你, 不过下次记得在叫我买的时候顺便告诉我什么时候卖

作者: shutterbug 時間: 2010-7-15 13:06

Not bad, +30% in a couple of weeks but the risk is high.

作者: Catpiano 時間: 2010-7-15 13:09

Really "find dead people money" la..

作者: shutterbug 時間: 2010-7-15 13:18

Take your money and go...BP is getting tons of lawsuits, including Obama asking for 100 bil damages!

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-15 13:30

bp is which stock? anyone tell me?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-15 13:52

I am not invested in BP itself, so I am not benefiting from a crisis. I just own a bunch of other deepwater drillers.

作者: samsung 時間: 2010-7-15 14:26

as far as I know, cowboy doesn't care about gaining or losing, are you the same cowboy?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-15 14:36

as far as I know, cowboy doesn't care about gaining or losing, are you the same cowboy?
samsung 發表於 2010/7/15 14:26

I said it doesn't matter whether you gain or lose as long as you learn something. I didn't say that I prefer losing over gaining.

作者: shutterbug 時間: 2010-7-15 14:37

bp is which stock? anyone tell me?
yayaya 發表於 2010-7-15 13:30

urghhhhh....BP is BP lor....LOL

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-15 14:48

The game switches to GS tomorrow. I didn't short technology in time before the market closed but I am starting a position in FAZ.

作者: Davidcopperfeel 時間: 2010-7-16 04:44

I suggest you go to casion

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 06:06

cow boy ur stock all got huge up this morning except the sgy....

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 06:21

不知道sgy会不会回升。。不回我就损失惨重了

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 07:12

I just bought more SGY.

Sold my FAZ for a 8% quick profit.

作者: kingsway 時間: 2010-7-16 10:11

Is it too late to do reverse EFT now?

It seems that it is still too early to do long position.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 10:18

Is it too late to do reverse EFT now?

It seems that it is still too early to do long position.
kingsway 發表於 2010/7/16 10:11

I would maintain a neutral position right now, maybe slightly on the long side. We are still in earnings season, the situation is a bit different from the last dive a couple weeks ago.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 10:27

It's true that the market has gone up for 7 days, but I look at today as a breather rather than the beginning of another dive. But the dive will surely come soon.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 11:15

The drop is definitely more than what I would expect on an option expiration day. I think things are short term oversold now.

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-7-16 12:11

It's true that the market has gone up for 7 days, but I look at today as a breather rather than the ...
快樂牛郎發表於 2010-7-16 10:27

When will the dive come?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 12:17

I would wait after earnings.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 16:38

oh my cow boy
i am almost dead today

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 17:19

and i think the market will keep going down next week, at least the first couple days of next week, i wanna cry...

作者: godavid 時間: 2010-7-16 18:52

who is BP? butt pat?

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 19:08

回復 25# godavid

BP 就是那家漏油的英国公司

作者: sheep 時間: 2010-7-16 19:33

oh my cow boy
i am almost dead today
yayaya 發表於 2010-7-16 16:38

阿爸冇教你
輸錢皆因贏錢起

作者: godavid 時間: 2010-7-16 19:50

seriously?yayaya?

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-16 20:43

if monday the market is still going down then yes

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 23:12

I would call a rebound on Monday and probably Tuesday as well. But overall, I don't see Dow breaking under 10,000 until the earnings are over.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-16 23:15

But we will continue to hit lower highs and lower lows until a breakout forms. So I would short again if Dow ever gets close to 10400.

作者: kingsway 時間: 2010-7-17 15:47

I would wait after earnings.
快樂牛郎發表於 2010-7-16 12:17

Can you tell that when will the earning reportings done?
Look at the market data, I expect that the market will still go down....

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-7-17 15:57

I would call a rebound on Monday and probably Tuesday as well. But overall, I don't see Dow breakin ...
快樂牛郎發表於 2010-7-16 23:12

Some big tech companies will report next week. Tell us when to sell.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-17 17:35

Look at the market data, I expect that the market will still go down....

what kind of data leads you to your conclusion?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-17 17:45

Most companies' earnings will probably top street estimates. Yes, guidance will not be favorable but everybody knows that the economy is slowing. Lower guidance itself doesn't necessarily mean the market is going lower. With such low volume during the summer, all the retail investors are just sitting on the sideline. The traders have been controlling the market for some time and they will continue to do so. I see the odds slightly favoring the upside but I am keeping a lot of cash in case the market tanks.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-17 18:30

I guess I will lose more than 500 on sgy on money I'm gonna short if continue dropping

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-19 11:57

So it looks like we just got a small rebound as I expected.

Earnings are likely to be good after market, but the BP issue is still the biggest factor right now.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-19 14:37

I think bp will has problem again with their cap

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-19 15:54

Earnings disappoint but with GS reporting tomorrow before the market, it's too premature to assume that the market will gap down tomorrow.

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-7-19 16:33

BP and related oil will be wild rides. Any minor news snippet is going to move the whole industry by percentage points it seems. I don't see how it will greatly affect other industries tho?

I doubt GS will allow earnings to disappoint, but I'm more interested in AAPL after the bell tomorrow tho. Going to be an interesting day... from the sidelines LOL.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-19 17:17

Ya, so far BP has no impact on other industries. But since 1/3 of my stocks are in oil, I am mostly concerned with how the cap works.

Financials had a relatively wild day today. I have no idea how GS will do tomorrow. I don't hold any ETFs anymore so as long as it's not a broad slide, it's not gonna have any direct impact on me.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-19 17:19

I am still long at the moment but if the market closes green tomorrow I will probably start building a short position.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 12:07

Alright, things are once again working in my favor. Started a small short position (7% of total holdings) before the market closed today. Will add more if the market keeps going up.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 12:37

AAPL blows out again. UP $10 after market.
Tomorrow is gonna be tricky.

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-20 12:59

buy appl now? or short financials?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 13:01

Short AAPL is the more prudent action.

I am putting in an order for TYP, and hopefully it will be filled by tomorrow morning.

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-7-20 13:03

I gambled AAPL w/ my lunch money today, too much pre-ER pessimism esp with Antennagate. So AAPL paid for my lunch today. Gonna be out tomorrow tho, ought to be better entry point even if one's thinking about longing AAPL.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 13:06

I think now that AAPL is out the way and the BP situation is stablizing, the Euro banking stress test on Friday will be the biggest event remaining. Unemployment reports will still matter, but not as much as the stress test results.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 14:03

Just as I mentioned yesterday that IBM's disappointing earnings weren't indicative of where the market would go today, a fantastic report by AAPL also doesn't mean the market will close in the green tomorrow. Being a contrarian really pays off in today's market.

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-7-20 15:17

Just as I mentioned yesterday that IBM's disappointing earnings weren't indicative of where the mark ...
快樂牛郎發表於 2010-7-20 14:03

Definately, AAPL does not represent the market. Moreover, whoever thinking of chasing after AAPL at this point would need to have serious guts...

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-20 16:16

Definately, AAPL does not represent the market. Moreover, whoever thinking of chasing after AAPL a ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-7-20 15:17

aapl is still very cheap. My guess is it will go up for a couple of days and then people will sell.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 16:27

This market has no leg. My price reference for AAPL is $263, which got hit after hours right after the earnings were released.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=AAPL&mkttype=after

I don't see AAPL climbing above this price.

The fact that it dropped to as low as $256 within 20 minutes is not a good sign what is going to happen tomorrow. This happened to INTC last week and we had our big drop not too long after.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-20 16:36

The market is once again in complacency mode. The 10,000 support can easily be taken out if the stress test results are not good.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 10:41

Sold my DRV a couple minutes ago for a quick 5% profit.

This marks the 12th straight day in which I've correctly called the market.

I expect the loss to narrow a bit towards the end of the day and a small rebound tomorrow.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 11:12

I totally forgot that today's VIX OE day. No wonder the huge swing.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 11:24

回復 55# 快樂牛郎

我要买什么么？

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 11:27

回復快樂牛郎

我要买什么么？
yayaya 發表於 2010/7/21 11:24

More SGY would be good

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 11:49

回復 57# 快樂牛郎

这次之后我不想再跟sgy扯上任何关系。。。

等我有机会把最后150shares卖了我就never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever never ever TOUCH SGY

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-7-21 14:41

AAPL? Bought 247 yesterday, sold 259 today. Save some gas so I don't have to go to the casino, that's all, LOL. AAPL underprice, overprice, nth to do w/ me n e more... until next time my hand itches again LOL.

What is SGY anyways. Why do you guys like it so much?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 14:49

No, I don't like SGY that much. It's a fairly small % of my portfolio. I just threw a name out for yayaya.

I smell a small to medium rally for tech tomorrow though. I just got some TYH after hours.

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-21 14:51

AAPL is still up today, in a down market, will go up rapidly over the next few weeks.
Maybe buy fas now, since the market is down, because of Bernanke speech.
Looks like the market in a range.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 14:58

AAPL is still up today, in a down market, will go up rapidly over the next few weeks.

Are you joking me?
You call that a victory when it dropped from $263-$264 to $254?

It's such a failure.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 15:07

Bernanke's speech to Congress is just a headline. There are many events that were largely ignored. While volume was ok today, it's nowhere near a free-fall. We will get a rebound tomorrow.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 15:39

其实我今日都想过买aapl ，不过因为见到距已经升紧，所以无加入
cow boy为什么我们昨天不买aapl 啊？你不是说他report么

另外tyh你也没有叫我买。。。

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 15:40

cow boy为什么我们昨天不买aapl 啊？你不是说他report么

I am not a gambler.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 15:41

如果gmxr听日升好多我就happy

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 15:41

另外tyh你也没有叫我买。。。

you still have cash?

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 15:42

回復 67# 快樂牛郎

次次都系我买入果几只升得好慢，然后我买漏果只就baba声升，好似今日甘

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-21 15:44

回復快樂牛郎

次次都系我买入果几只升得好慢，然后我买漏果只就baba声升，好似今日甘 ...
yayaya 發表於 2010/7/21 15:42

That means you SUCK

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-21 16:17

回復 69# 快樂牛郎

U SUCK

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 06:49

Selling my ERX and half of TYH for 8% gain.

AAPL is only up 2%, strongly lagging the market considering that it has a beta of 2-3.

I am starting to load up some shorts as hedge.

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-22 09:46

They are holding back aapl intentionally. But appl is a part of tyh.
Maybe buying some faz now before Friday.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 09:53

Maybe buying some faz now before Friday.

Good call. I agree.

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-22 11:11

msft earnings coming.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 13:10

msft earnings coming.
maldini 發表於 2010/7/22 11:11

no impact

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 14:10

I expect a flat day tomorrow, but I am still holding 25% as short just to hedge. It's hard to imagine another rally tomorrow like today.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 14:11

The scary thing is that a lot of people are calling this a real rally, but the options market is not buying it. I would rather be safe than sorry.

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-7-22 17:04

so far Happy Cow 都真係幾鬼準, 勁!

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-22 17:08

so far Happy Cow 都真係幾鬼準, 勁!
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010/7/22 17:04

14 days in a row now. I hope my streak can continue. I really don't have any expectation for tomorrow, that's why I am fully hedged with no exposure to either side. However, I would prefer the market to go down so I can sell my bear ETFs and grab more cheap shares.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-22 17:20

回復 79# 快樂牛郎

me too

作者: kingsway 時間: 2010-7-22 23:56

是啊~ 也不知道怎樣，是多或空~
暫時還握住d 現金先~

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 04:03

多数升

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 05:36

wahahhahahaah cow boy 我大难不死，必有后福，我从早看到晚finvin都是一片绿色的，到开市前几分钟，终于开始逐渐变红，我就知道我行运了，一开市升了2-3%我就全部走人了，赚不够100都至少没有亏钱哇哈哈哈哈

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 05:39

而且我告诉你哦，我是知道vxx tza drv是什么用途的，只不过我思想比较简单，一是过于依赖你，二是我以为通常只股跌了10%第二日肯定会升，所以先卖晒其他d股，搞到我以为这又是我第二个大mistake

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 05:43

aapl终于开始跌了

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-23 08:16

而且我告诉你哦，我是知道vxx tza drv是什么用途的，只不过我思想比较简单，一是过于依赖你，二是我以为通常只股跌了10%第二日肯定会升，所以先卖晒其他d股，搞到我以为这又是我第二个大mistake

no idea what you are saying

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-23 08:52

I expect a flat day tomorrow, but I am still holding 25% as short just to hedge. It's hard to imagi ...
快樂牛郎發表於 2010/7/22 14:10

Pretty much a flat day so far as I anticipated. Things can still change in the remaining few hours but it seems like traders don't want to do much before the weekend.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-23 12:02

Finally wrong for once.
The Small cap rally is just insane.
I totally didn't expect that.

Oh well.

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-23 12:10

Should have bought the tna.
How many days can they rally next week?

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 12:11

market和早上相反了吧，你不会没有走那些drv tza那么聪明吧。。

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-23 12:22

Should have bought the tna.
How many days can they rally next week?
maldini 發表於 2010/7/23 12:10

My short : long ratio is now 5:3.

It's a bet I don't feel like making, but there's just too much irrational exuberance right now.

作者: kingsway 時間: 2010-7-23 12:45

wahahhahahaah cow boy 我大难不死，必有后福，我从早看到晚finvin都是一片绿色的，到开市前几分钟，终于开 ...
yayaya 發表於 2010-7-23 05:36

你就好啦， D short 可以走，不用虧~

我long 股賺的也不足夠TZA虧損的多~

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-23 12:47

我long 股賺的也不足夠TZA虧損的多~kingsway 發表於 2010/7/23 12:45

I only had a small position this morning so my total loss is only half of what I gained today. But I doubled my position a few minutes before close so if it rallies again on Monday, I will be screwed.

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-23 16:22

你就好啦， D short 可以走，不用虧~

我long 股賺的也不足夠TZA虧損的多~ ...
kingsway 發表於 2010-7-23 12:45

星期一tza升翻你快d卖咪得咯

作者: maldini 時間: 2010-7-26 12:10

the markets continue to move up.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-7-26 12:44

the markets continue to move up.
maldini 發表於 2010/7/26 12:10

yes, it's sickeningly bullish.
but there's also no reason to exit any short position at this time
I would just hang on

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-27 05:34

仲系升，问你死未，个市够呛

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-27 05:36

d股票全部都升左不少，在高位我也不敢买入，点知还是升，atpg真是牛

作者: yayaya 時間: 2010-7-27 05:47

一开市实在太离谱了。。。升那么多，沽空那些又跌多几个百分点，过了10分钟回升翻d，先正常翻小小

作者: kingsway 時間: 2010-7-27 22:21

The market did not fall down alot today wor. But it may be still a bit early to position the short now!?

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