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標題: 中國：2040年全球唯一超級大國？ [打印本頁]

作者: fy789 時間: 2010-9-23 06:46 標題: 中國：2040年全球唯一超級大國？

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作者: Catpiano 時間: 2010-9-23 07:21

為甚麼中國那麼成功、那麼繁榮﹐而美國卻陷入了偏執的自毀文化??

Ask Peter!

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2010-9-23 09:47

本帖最後由 lo_pak 於 2010-9-23 09:48 編輯

If the ethical standard in China didn't get raised, China can't bear the term "strong"... It's more or less JUST a super nation filled with money slaves ONLY...

作者: Lik 時間: 2010-9-23 10:27

The bigger problem is, given China's current one child policy, the economic success that China is currently enjoying is gonna start vanishing into thin air in 15 - 20 year's time. Burdened with an aging population, the social problems are gonna be signficantly bigger than what the western countries are currently facing with the aging baby boomers. Correspondingly, economic output is going to drop significantly. In fact, the economic drop off might happen sooner than the social problem of population aging because people's output and performance drops off well before they reach the age of retirement.

-Lik

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 11:02

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 11:04 編輯

The bigger problem is, given China's current one child policy, the economic success that China is cu ...
Lik 發表於 2010-9-23 10:27

It is Japan that is vanishing now due to its aging population.
But just look at the number of mainlanders going to Hong Kong to give birth to babies, there is still growth.
The one child policy has so many exceptions these days.

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 11:10

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作者: Lik 時間: 2010-9-23 11:28

It is Japan that is vanishing now due to its aging population.
But just look at the number of mainlanders going to Hong Kong to give birth to babies, there is still growth.
The one child policy has so many exceptions these days.
peter236 發表於 2010-9-23 11:02

True, Japan is facing a very serious issue with their aging population. And look what has happened to their economy in the last 15 - 20 years. The aging population certainly isn't the exclusive reason for their poor economic performance, but this is definitely one of the contributing factors. The aging problem in China is only going to be dramatically more serious than Japan.

You must be brain dead to mention Mainlanders going to HK to give birth. Do you even know what kind of people those are, and how much it'll cost to give birth in Hong Kong? I don't have the exact number off the top of my head, but I think it's somewhere around HKD$30k to $40k. This is not a sum that any commoner in China can cough up! In terms of percentages, the number of Mainlanders giving birth in China and thus evading the 1-child policy wouldn't even make up for 0.001% of the overall Chinese birth rate.

There is still growth wor? Moron~

-Lik

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 11:44

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 11:53 編輯

You moron~~

Like I said before the one child policy is only applicable to urban people, but not the rural people.
Also, couples who are single child can have more children.
They are not as dumb as you think, as the one child policy is begin relaxed in many ways.

But then many younger people want to spend more time to develop their careers. Also, the cost of living is also increasing. All these factors will also affect the situation.

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 11:48

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8166413.stm

Shanghai urges 'two-child policy'

Officials in Shanghai are urging parents to have a second child, the first time in decades the government has pushed for more babies.

A public information campaign has been launched to highlight exemptions to the country's one-child policy.

Couples who were both only children, which includes most of the city's newly-weds, are allowed a second child.

The move comes as China's most populous city becomes richer and older, with the number of retired residents soaring.

"Shanghai's over-60 population already exceeds three million, or 21.6% of registered residents," said Zhang Meixin, a spokesman for the city's Municipal Population and Family Planning Commission.

Leaflet campaign

He said the current average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime was less than one.

If all couples have children according to the policy, it would definitely help relieve pressure in the long term," he added.

Decades of a strictly enforced one-child policy has produced new strains across the population and prompted exceptions in some family categories. Rural parents are also allowed to have a second child, if the first-born is a girl.

In Shanghai, family planning officials and volunteers will make home visits and slip leaflets under doors to encourage couples to have a second child if both grew up as only children.

Emotional and financial counselling will also be provided, officials said.

By 2020, the country's most populous city is expected to have more than a third of residents aged 60 or above.

Policy relaxed

According to the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, by 2050 the country will have just 1.6 working-age adults to support each retired person, compared to 7.7 in 1975.

The state-controlled newspaper China Daily quoted one salesman who said he was cheered by the new attitude.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-9-23 12:04

Education is still a concern in China. Most of the best people in China were educated in foreign schools. Without quality domestic education, I can't see how a country to rise to power. The same issue is plaguing the US right now as education went down the drain in the mist of the economic mess.

but seriously, 2040?
you should worry whether the world will survive till then

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 12:06

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作者: CWong 時間: 2010-9-23 12:07

卅年後仲有命先再講啦！

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 12:08

Education is still a concern in China. Most of the best people in China were educated in foreign sc ...
快樂牛郎發表於 2010-9-23 12:04

China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2020. Since the US GDP will shrink very quickly, China is going to dominate over the US, way before 2030.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2010-9-23 12:11

卅年後仲有命先再講啦！
CWong 發表於 2010/9/23 12:07

economists like to make meaningless predictions.
that's what they do for their salary

if they were so good
they wouldn't be talking bs all day long

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 12:11

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作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-9-23 13:50

D Chinese commentators 成日發白日夢. 如其成日話自己國家點勁/會點勁/幾時勁, 不如做 D 實質既野 to contribute to the country 好過啦. 要 critique 都 critque 吓有 D 咩唔完善, 國家可以 improve 既地方. Otherwise 想勁都難.

作者: lo_pak 時間: 2010-9-23 13:56

因為自卑, 所以自大...

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 14:10

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作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 14:27

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 14:29 編輯

D Chinese commentators 成日發白日夢. 如其成日話自己國家點勁/會點勁/幾時勁, 不如做 D 實質既野 to cont ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-9-23 13:50

I am surprised by your comment. What are you referring to exactly?
Chinese people and commentators always criticize their own government.
Chinese people are working hard in China, building their own country.

China overtaking the US in terms of total GDP by about 2020, is based on very conservative calculations by international economists.

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 14:29

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作者: Lik 時間: 2010-9-23 15:03

Chinese people and commentators always criticize their own government.
Chinese people are working hard in China, building their own country.
peter236 發表於 2010-9-23 14:27

#1 is the biggest joke there can possibly be.

While it is true that Chinese commentators often criticize their governments, it should be noted that they either only do so if:

1) they are talking about the provincial governments other than their own, or
2) they are criticizing on little things that are merely minor inconveniences, and is not related to the major power players

And the most important thing is, when Grandfather tell them to shut up, everybody shuts up.

#2 is true up to a certain extent, but again, you gotta keep in mind that those who are working the hardest and doing the dirtiest, most demanding jobs are the little peons and peasants that are getting taken advantage of by the big business owners and various governments.

-Lik

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 15:06

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作者: zoids 時間: 2010-9-23 15:28

Although I don't like how Lik always attacks PRC stupidly, but really.... this article is a joke, especially on those American ethic criticisms.

Thanks for the laugh.

作者: Lik 時間: 2010-9-23 15:34

Although I don't like how Lik always attacks PRC stupidly
zoids 發表於 2010-9-23 15:28

Next time when you think I'm doing that, why don't you point it out and tell me why you think it's stupid? Maybe we'll find out who is really being stupid there.

-Lik

作者: rockypath 時間: 2010-9-23 16:31

Article like this can be ignored.

作者: rockypath 時間: 2010-9-23 16:32

Article like this can be ignored.

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-9-23 17:11

I am surprised by your comment. What are you referring to exactly?
Chinese people and commentators ...
peter236 發表於 2010-9-23 14:27

全部都係指緊個 author, 就係咁簡單.

作者: peter236 時間: 2010-9-23 17:19

本帖最後由 peter236 於 2010-9-23 17:23 編輯

#1 is the biggest joke there can possibly be.

While it is true that Chinese commentators often cri ...
Lik 發表於 2010-9-23 15:03

For #1, criticizing the provincial governments is also a form of criticism.
For #2, it is the same in all countries, the big corporations and government control everything.

作者: Lik 時間: 2010-9-23 18:16

You are (purposely?) missing the key points in #1. The key points are that firstly, within a province, only provinces other than their own are harshly criticized because locals are afraid of pissing off the local power players. As such, the criticisms can't really help to improve anything locally. And of course, most importantly, when Grandfather tells you to shut up, everybody has to shut up. This is just wrong.

While it is true that workers get exploited by entrepreneurs everywhere in the world, is the extent of the unfairness similar between China and western countries?

Sigh... Why do I even bother...

-Lik

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2010-9-23 19:40

Sigh... Why do I even bother...
Lik 發表於 2010-9-23 18:16

That's the word of wisdom. Arguing with peter236 about China is kinda a waste of time. Just let him con't to post China news, It ain't that bad. LOL

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 20:30

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作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 20:31

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作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 20:32

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作者: rockypath 時間: 2010-9-23 21:16

the article about praising China should not be ignored? hahahaha
mukmuk2 發表於 2010-9-23 20:32

I don't know whether it is you who don't understand what I said or I don't understand what you said.

Let me rephrase what I said - article like this does not worth to read and can be ignored.

作者: mukmuk2 時間: 2010-9-23 21:55

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