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標題: 加國屋價恐下跌 [打印本頁]

作者: bubble 時間: 2011-2-4 09:45 標題: 加國屋價恐下跌

資本經濟(Capital Economics)的最新報告預測﹐一旦利率回升﹐加國房地產市場會崩潰﹐屋價3年內跌幅可高達25%﹐甚或35%﹐10%按揭無力償還﹐按揭公司損失100億元。

絕大多數經濟師預料﹐央行在春末或夏初將開始加息﹐利率將從現在的1%﹐提高至年底的2%。

預料加拿大央行明年也會繼續提高政策利率﹐直到2012年底回復至正常水平的3.5%左右。

資本經濟的加拿大首席經濟師馬達尼(David Madani)表示﹐那將對房價與經濟帶來深遠衝擊。

作者: BiscottiGelato 時間: 2011-2-4 18:41

if the impact is too great, then they simply won't raise interest rates as fast as these economist have predicted.

it won't happen if you can predict it... it's the stuff that you can't predict that bankrupts people (or make ppl really rich).

作者: ecwkwok 時間: 2011-2-4 20:31

個人認為呢班所謂經濟師可能唔知道, 大陸投資者o既決定, 有時係完全同咩經濟環境規律無咩關係; 因為佢地大多唔需要供樓, 亦唔需要租間屋出去, 最緊要D錢出o左國, 賺蝕係其次...

作者: masterbear 時間: 2011-2-4 21:18

本帖最後由 masterbear 於 2011-2-4 21:19 編輯

Well said Well said! Wherever they go.... they buy and they flip!! Not only in Real Estate but everything they thought it's potential to make $ and flip or show off, they will take it and flip it! They have tons of cash ... as long as they can ship and wire their $ out of the country, they are the KING in the world now! CASH is still the KING!!

作者: Guy 時間: 2011-2-4 23:11

GOOD NEWS FOR ME

作者: masterbear 時間: 2011-2-4 23:49

When the Real Estate market collapsed 25% in here..... lots of industries and office will be in deep trouble and u may lost your job too! How can u buy at that time?

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-5 00:36

既然加息导致楼市暴跌，经济也一定唔会好，当时又何必救市呢？甘样证明加息更加不太合理啦

作者: masterbear 時間: 2011-2-5 01:05

既然加息导致楼市暴跌，经济也一定唔会好，当时又何必救市呢？甘样证明加息更加不太合理啦 ...
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-5 00:36

After Global Crisis and Mainland China Crisis, I think there's another proof that can't use the most traditional way or theory from university of Economic to invest stocks and real estate anymore!

作者: Ovaltine 時間: 2011-2-5 02:29

so where the people want to "get on car" now? i want to hear from them...

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-5 09:43

After Global Crisis and Mainland China Crisis, I think there's another proof that can't use the mos ...
masterbear 發表於 2011-2-5 01:05

点会呢

之前09年和10年头的人买楼家下赚到笑啦。完全符合经济原则，地位入市

只不过D人有羊群心理，当时自己猪没没入市办法

好发梦都想温哥华市跌，但是可能性好低，只要一日温哥华的购买力还是华人主导，温哥华的楼市可定唔会跌。

甘多位老友有何见解？

作者: rainbow-davie 時間: 2011-2-5 11:34

drop more drop more drop more

作者: FiChai 時間: 2011-2-5 12:27

Generally speaking, real estate market price would raise and drop from time to time, isn't it normal? The thing is how much it raises and drops within a certain time frame. Even it "may" drop 25% (or more) in the next 3 years, who can guarantee that it won't bounce up in the following 7 years? (as I mentioned, the suggested 10 year "safe term"). As long as the owners can afford the mortgage, they can wait until a higher point to sell (if the real estate is for investment purpose).

作者: peter236 時間: 2011-2-5 17:48

The real estate here will not drop, as long as the Americans are printing money like crazy.

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-6 01:26

The real estate here will not drop, as long as the Americans are printing money like crazy.
peter236 發表於 2011-2-5 17:48

估唔到你都有D point 喔

作者: sheep 時間: 2011-2-6 09:14

又點解美國死
加拿大又唔死？

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-6 09:37

又點解美國死
加拿大又唔死？
sheep 發表於 2011-2-6 09:14

温哥华系一个好特别的地方，同其他加拿大城市唔同，楼市的主要购买者和楼市的拉升唔系收入型，而是资产型

楼市的拉升最主要原因是海外资产讲到白就系本地人根本买唔起楼

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-6 11:14

温哥华系一个好特别的地方，同其他加拿大城市唔同，楼市的主要购买者和楼市的拉升唔系收入型，而是 ...
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-6 09:37

That's the same BS the real estate cheerleader have been pulling in Cali and Florida before the crash

If there are so many rich people and all the properties are taken by the rich, can someone explain why our debt level is up at the eyeball level now?

May be we are really different here...

作者: liksook 時間: 2011-2-6 11:21

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/g ... ext/article1892281/

he is not totally right but does have some other perspectives into this debt matter

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-6 13:22

That's the same BS the real estate cheerleader have been pulling in Cali and Florida before the cr ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-6 11:14

多有钱人竞投高房价，就会拉高房价咯，甘你都唔明白？

外来的人随便只要放低30%首期，就可以在银行随便贷款，就算加拿大 0 收入都可以贷款，房价有什么理由不高？

美国点同啊？移民美国容易还是移民加拿大容易啊？美国当时有没甘多中国投资移民啊？

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-7 02:13

多有钱人竞投高房价，就会拉高房价咯，甘你都唔明白？

外来的人随便只要放低30%首期，就可以在银行随便 ...
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-6 13:22

I really don't understand lor.  Are you a real estate agent?

I did not know that rich people are interested in bungalow.  I can understand that rich people would snap up the multi-million dollar luxury houses in west end.  But crappy bungalow?? really??

30% downpayment?  1st, i did not know that rich people with hot money would need a mortgage.  Even if they want a mortgage b/c the money is pretty much free (due to low interest rate), that is for sure not the majority of the mortgage in Canada.  The mortgage in Canada has an average of 7% downpayment.

But you nail one point correctly.  Even people with no money can get a mortgage.  Does it remind you sth similar that happened in US called subprime?

Well... i guess you are right.  We are different here.  Chinese only love Canada.  They don't like US, Europe, or wherever is having a housing crash. (pretty much everywhere except Canada and Australia)

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-7 02:33

美国点同啊？移民美国容易还是移民加拿大容易啊？美国当时有没甘多中国投资移民啊？kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-6 13:22

Oh... and I forgot to mention one thing. You don't need to be a citizen to buy a house in US. For investment purpose or just "storing money" (i call BS on this one too), you can purchase all you want in US.

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-7 09:40

本帖最後由 kingkong123 於 2011-2-7 09:43 編輯

I really don't understand lor. Are you a real estate agent?

I did not know that rich people are ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 02:13

什么叫水涨船高？温哥华就是甘的情况

有钱人当然唔会住bungalow啦，白痴都知道，有钱人睇中的系baungalow的地唔系间屋，人地要推倒重建

另外关于mortgage，有钱人，做生意的人一定会做mortgage，就算几有钱都会用mortgage。因为做生意最紧要的就是cash flow。这个就是做大生意的原则。并非有钱就唔会借钱，有钱就更加要借钱。越有钱借钱越多。你去问问李嘉诚她会唔会借钱做生意。越有钱的借钱越多。这个就是经济学的贡杆原理

至于零首期贷款，在加拿大是极少的，利息也是起码是post rate

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-7 09:42

Oh... and I forgot to mention one thing. You don't need to be a citizen to buy a house in US. Fo ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 02:33

加拿大米一样 purchase all you want in canada 同美国一dog 样

作者: Look4chrisng 時間: 2011-2-7 09:46

It is all about interest rate. Stupid.

As long as money is pretty much free. Asset bubbles will continue. But when rate starts to increase, it will be very ugly in Vancouver. Rich people will always be fine, but the middle and low income folks will suffer. - Higher mortgage payments, dropping RE value, higher taxes.

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-7 10:33

有钱人当然唔会住bungalow啦，白痴都知道，有钱人睇中的系baungalow的地唔系间屋，人地要推倒重建

Wrong. Not all of them got knock down. Look at the amount of bungalow that got renovated and flip. That suggests how much speculators (i mean investors) we have in the market.

并非有钱就唔会借钱，有钱就更加要借钱。越有钱借钱越多。

With a record high debt of more than 1 trillion, we can conclude that we are a economically strong country

至于零首期贷款，在加拿大是极少的，利息也是起码是post rate

Are you sure? Again, average downpayment is 7%. Why did government get rid of the 0 downpayment rule? Ever heard of some unethical practice with cash rebate, or using credit line to get the required 5%?

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-7 10:34

It is all about interest rate. Stupid.

As long as money is pretty much free. Asset bubbles will ...
Look4chrisng 發表於 2011-2-7 09:46

Completely disagree. Interest rate for sure have some impact, but it is not "all about interest rate". See both Japan and Australia as examples.

作者: MSN04 時間: 2011-2-7 10:37

加拿大米一样 purchase all you want in canada 同美国一dog 样
kingkong123 發表於 2011-2-7 09:42

Geez... you didn't get my point?
That's exactly what I was talking about. For an investor, there is no restriction to buy in Canada or US. Just ask yourself, at current market, which market has more potential to get more gain over the next 10 years?

作者: kingkong123 時間: 2011-2-7 10:38

Wrong. Not all of them got knock down. Look at the amount of bungalow that got renovated and flip ...
MSN04 發表於 2011-2-7 10:33

你的意思米一样咯，水涨船高啊嘛，市场是被拉动的嘛

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