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標題: 樓市你點睇？ [打印本頁]
作者: ricrick    時間: 2008-10-20 21:21     標題: 樓市你點睇？

樓市開始從高鋒緩緩下滑，我睇今次金融海潚慢慢就卷到加拿大，到時候就大把人失業，樓又供吾起，又冇人買，樓市就一定仆直，我想這次最少跌一兩年才見底！
作者: puZZle    時間: 2008-10-21 11:09

my family just sold our house half a year ago
作者: shutterbug    時間: 2008-10-21 11:10

well, 6 months ago lots of people still thought that Van RE would never fall (by much)...our prices are still way too high although some west side sellers cut 100k already...

you think only 1-2 years?  I kinda agree...but that's after 2010 olympics...lots of projects are still going so the "supply" is not way up yet...
作者: siumaibb    時間: 2008-10-21 16:36

only 1-2 year? I don't think so la
作者: pepsis2    時間: 2008-10-21 19:48

gurantee must go down alot in this year & next year! since the RE price in Van is rediculuously high & ppl who couldn't afford the RE can only buy it b/c of the loose financial check & big loan long term (like 35 year for 5% or even 0% downpayment)...

Now everything has changed! u see the RE market in USA (esp for those big cities for the price that double in the last 5 years now has come down dramatically) , u are pretty much watching the RE market in Van this year & next year.
作者: shutterbug    時間: 2008-10-22 11:05

Goodbye...Ritz-Carlton...

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columb ... rlton.html

Ritz-Carlton condo project stalls in Vancouver

Construction of one of Vancouver's most prestigious condominium projects has been halted, but the developer says design changes, not the international credit crisis, are behind the move.

Work halted on the Ritz-Carlton construction site on Friday, and crews did not return on Monday after the weekend, leaving a giant hole in the ground near the corner of West Georgia Street and Bute Street in the heart of Vancouver.

But the building's developer Simon Lim, president of the Holborn Group, told CBC News financial concerns were not behind the decision to put the project on hold.

According to Lim, the work was halted so some design changes to the parkade can be made, and it made no sense to keep crews working. The sales office is open by appointment while those changes are underway, he added.

Bob Rennie, who works on marketing the project, said 50 per cent of the condominium units were pre-sold.

"I've just been instructed by Holborn to make it clear that it is a suspension of construction until they go through redesign," Rennie said Tuesday.

Advertising signage around the construction site was missing on Tuesday and construction trailers had been removed from the site. About 50 per cent of the excavation for the foundation of the project had already been completed.

The 60-storey tower, which twists 45 degrees as it rises, is an Arthur Erickson design. The design features a high-end Ritz-Carlton hotel on the lower floors and 123 luxury condos on the upper floors priced between $2.5 million and $10 million, with the penthouse priced at $28 million.

Holborn's next project, The Hills, is now delayed until the new year. The Hills, at Nanaimo Street and Kingsway, is to offer more than 280 units in a 22-storey highrise tower, a 6-storey mid-rise and a few townhomes.

Jennifer Podmore, a real estate market strategy consultant with MPC Intelligence in Vancouver, said confusion and uncertainty are prevailing in the industry.

"You're seeing a lot of people just taking a deep breath and waiting a few months and really studying what's happening with the consumer confidence and what people are saying to figure out where people are going next," she said.
作者: Catpiano    時間: 2008-10-22 11:15

作者: shutterbug    時間: 2008-10-22 11:53

design changes???  excuse or what?  since it's 50% pre-sold, so cut the building by 30 storeys?
作者: peter236    時間: 2008-10-22 12:18

原帖由 pepsis2 於 2008-10-21 20:48 發表
gurantee must go down alot in this year & next year! since the RE price in Van is rediculuously high & ppl who couldn't afford the RE can only buy it b/c of the loose financial check & big loan long t ...


Why do people here say local prices will stand strong?
作者: pepsis2    時間: 2008-10-22 13:18

I didn't say the local prices will stand strong. I mean the total opposite... that "the one has gone up must come down"... just think the price is not affordable for most of the average income Vancouverites (how many of us making $120,000 as a total family income annually; since we can only afford 1/3 of our income for housing cost not only including mortgage but tax & maintenance & everything else)???
if nobody can afford the price in this high without Loose finanical control over borrowing, i don't think the demand & supply curve will keep the price in Vancouver RE this high for a long time....

so local price in Van RE must go down. Gurantee.  (in Long term like 10 to 20 years, that's another story since u gotta include the fact of inflation & blahblahblah)
作者: peter236    時間: 2008-10-22 16:11

原帖由 pepsis2 於 2008-10-22 14:18 發表
I didn't say the local prices will stand strong. I mean the total opposite... that "the one has gone up must come down"... just think the price is not affordable for most of the average income Vancouv ...


Yeah, but the local economists and real estate people still pretend the local prices are not going to be affected.
作者: 大C姐    時間: 2008-10-22 16:15

好難講﹐我呢D三姑六婆意見你鍾意聽就聽啦。但係我個人認為樓市跌多20-25%就好入貨﹐我覺得點跌都有個普(我係講大溫地區啦當然﹐你唔好講話咩Langley﹐Mission跌一半果D)。

我覺得美國會差D﹐因為真係好多人失業同擲死晒D錢。溫哥華真係有錢人多﹐洗黎洗去面果浸。同埋一向呢度都唔係一個同股市好扯上關係既城市﹐好境又無我哋份﹐唔好境都好似無咩愁雲慘霧。實有D影響啦當然﹐但係有時美國差(美元跌)加拿大反而有so。我誇下海口講﹐美元遲D一定跌到巴巴聲。你而家硬谷硬救﹐救救下就唔救架啦。

所以我黎跟2009年都會買翻棟自住。


-- 葉吹吹大C姐
作者: pepsis2    時間: 2008-10-22 18:13

yes.. i agree 溫哥華真係有錢人多... esp those mainstream retirees (or near retired age).... lots of them in West Van.. but they're the one who're affected the most since they get most of the $ put into the stock market & RRSP... which has fallen sooo sharply lately....

personally I dont' think the RE will fall like back to 2003 price, but a big drop is unpreventable... good luck to all of u !
作者: ricrick    時間: 2008-10-22 20:56

之前個市咁旺都係因為d人係到炒來炒去，你看看而家新落成的柏文都冇人住，到時候有咩風吹草動，d友仔供吾起放晒出黎，個市仲吾仆直？
作者: molamola    時間: 2008-10-22 22:55

People in the industry of course take a overly positive side. their opinion is biased. Just common sense.

For those are close to retirement are all set even with the market drop, they invested in RRSP early, so it doesnt affect them as much as you think.
作者: shutterbug    時間: 2008-10-23 10:40

As Greenspun said this is a once-in-a-century crisis so probably only a few people have experienced something similar in their lifetime!

Watch our unemployment rate to judge our current condition is a better gauge.

[ 本帖最後由 shutterbug 於 2008-10-23 11:43 編輯 ]
作者: chunsh    時間: 2008-10-23 10:53

As a citizen who want to buy a house for LIVING in these few years, not for investment, I would say, please please make the market drop

[ 本帖最後由 chunsh 於 2008-10-23 11:55 編輯 ]
作者: starbug    時間: 2008-10-23 13:20

原帖由 ricrick 於 2008-10-22 21:56 發表
之前個市咁旺都係因為d人係到炒來炒去，你看看而家新落成的柏文都冇人住，到時候有咩風吹草動，d友仔供吾起放晒出黎，個市仲吾仆直？


其實每次個市PK, 都有一班人走得甩同揸定錢等執平貨, 而且呢班人一般都唔係C9, 明自到跌極有個譜, 跟住就入貨, 所以PK後市点都有D支持力, 唔係一定會執到D絕世平貨.
作者: pepsis2    時間: 2008-10-23 16:22     標題: 回復 15# 的帖子

well i understand that they invested cheap like long ago.. but when u see your RRSP $ just drop down like 30 - 40% off like within this month.. (most of my fd RRSP who are "moderately risk" has dropped in this range) & don't see it will come back in a short term, it definitely affects how they will spend their $...
作者: fibbi    時間: 2008-10-23 16:37

原帖由 pepsis2 於 2008-10-23 17:22 發表
well i understand that they invested cheap like long ago.. but when u see your RRSP $ just drop down like 30 - 40% off like within this month.. (most of my fd RRSP who are "moderately risk" has droppe ...


一日未賣，一日都未計數，而且RRSP係退休個時先用，其實沒有很大影響吧....段估二三十年後都唔會唔升番上去卦...
至於樓市，我睇點都會挨到2010冬奧，之後就無眼睇勒

[ 本帖最後由 fibbi 於 2008-10-23 17:42 編輯 ]
作者: peter236    時間: 2008-10-23 16:47

原帖由 fibbi 於 2008-10-23 17:37 發表


一日未賣，一日都未計數，而且RRSP係退休個時先用，其實沒有很大影響吧....段估二三十年後都唔會唔升番上去卦...
至於樓市，我睇點都會挨到2010冬奧，之後就無眼睇勒 ...


Well, if you look at the Japan stock market. The high was about 38000 points and then Japan went into a recession for like 15 to 20 years. Their stock market went down to about 7900 points. Now it is still about 8000 points.
作者: fibbi    時間: 2008-10-23 17:20

Japan is different ...
Canada...at least it has lots of natural resources...in better shape than japan...
作者: molamola    時間: 2008-10-23 19:47

if you are getting close to retirement and still holding tons of stocks in your RRSP, you have no one to blame except yourself., you dont balance your stock/cash holding.

the 30 - 40% down from last month is meaningless, you have to look at the whole portfolio to determine your position.
作者: peter236    時間: 2008-10-23 21:40

原帖由 fibbi 於 2008-10-23 18:20 發表
Japan is different ...
Canada...at least it has lots of natural resources...in better shape than japan...


I know Canada is better, but oil prices is down nearly 50% already and other natural resources price are also down for now. Since China drives up natural resources prices and even China is now slowing.
作者: molamola    時間: 2008-10-23 22:20

if the global economy is slowing down, the demand for resources will be lower.
作者: Catpiano    時間: 2008-10-24 07:43

Sigh ...  
作者: masterbear    時間: 2008-10-24 09:42

原帖由 shutterbug 於 2008-10-23 11:40 發表
As Greenspun said this is a once-in-a-century crisis so probably only a few people have experienced something similar in their lifetime!

Watch our unemployment rate to judge our current condition is  ...

Think deeply "Greenspun" is 1 of the MAJOR PERSON to make things happen like this in the world nowadays! U still listen what he said
作者: pepsis2    時間: 2008-10-24 10:43

gum I believe in him more la... he takes action already..

李嘉誠煞停全球新投資
和黃持盈保泰 七成現金 2008年10月24日
廣 告






【明報專訊】金融海嘯把環球經濟推進寒冬，香港藍籌企業開始收緊擴充步伐。香港富商李嘉誠的旗艦公司和記黃埔，決定暫時煞停全球業務的新投資。在明年中之前，所有未落實或未作承擔的開支都會省下來，並要檢討全部投資項目。和黃是香港多個行業的龍頭，聘用了近3萬人，是本港最大的私人僱主。

美資證券商花旗前天起在澳門舉辦投資者會議，邀請了和黃財務董事陸法蘭出席。花旗昨日發表的報告，披露了和黃(0013)管理層在會上提出的「持盈保泰」策略，和黃在明年6月底前，將凍結所有未落實的投資開支(uncommitted spending)，並檢討全部現有投資項目。

管理層強調沒持高風險投資產品

和黃更採取異常保守的理財手法，目前持有的221億美元(約1724億港元)資金，有多達69％、即接近1190億港元是現金，其餘主要投資在最穩陣的政府債券上，意味股票僅佔一個很小的比重。和黃管理層強調，完全沒有投資企業債券、結構性投資工具和累計期權(accumulator)產品，也沒有來自對活動的收入和盈利。

料決定對港經濟有重大影響

和黃發言人回應本報記者查詢時表示，花旗報告引述公司管理層所指的不會有新增開支，是指還未落實的投資支出，並不涉及已落實的計劃。消息指出，和黃是因應環球經濟環境的變化，投資的風險有變，因而下了有關決定。

和黃主席李嘉誠在評估趨勢、拿時機上，一向眼光獨到，在這次源於美國次按問題的環球金融海嘯全面爆發之前，他已不止一次針對股市泡沫和環球經濟前景提出警告(詳見另文)。

作為本港首富李嘉誠旗下商業旗艦的和黃，業務遍佈全球57個國家，僱員總人數超過22萬，單是在本港就有近3萬人，是本港多個行業的龍頭，經營範圍包括超級市場、流動通訊公司及貨櫃碼頭等，和黃今次的投資決定，會對本港經濟發展有重大影響。

股價今年挫52％ 市值1800億

相對於「還未落實或未作承擔(uncommitted)」的投資，已承擔(committed)的投資通常指已簽約和已批准但未簽約的項目，以和黃的香港貨櫃碼頭業務為例，根據其2007年年報顯示，截至去年底的已承擔資本開支有4.4億元。和黃在全球全部業務的已作承擔資本開支總額，則數以百億元計。和黃去年賺306億元，股價今年已下挫52％，市值1800億元。



去年早看出隱憂 勸人勿借錢炒股 2008年10月24日
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【明報專訊】中小企一家接一家倒閉、公司裁員潮接踵而至……金融海嘯的巨浪，終於正面衝擊本港的實體經濟，有人或許會感到突然，但其實早於去年當大家還沉醉於屢創新高的股市時，長和系主席李嘉誠已告誡大家美國經濟問題將波及香港，還苦口婆心的勸股民不要借錢炒股。

當一度被譽為「亞洲股神」的「四叔」李兆基高呼恒指會衝上4萬點之時，李嘉誠自去年起，每次出席業績發布或股東大會時，總叫大家「量力而為」。去年中，他先為內地股市的泡沫擔憂；到了8月，「港股直通車」掩蓋了美國次按風暴，他更直指美國經濟會波及香港。及至今年，股市急挫，當雷曼兄弟未破產，部分股民以為「見底」時，他再一次說，香港最壞的時候仍未到，「從今天到明年，(股市)投機要非常小心，投資在此時是否好時間，就要研究經濟，我認為要小心，這是我的肺腑之言」。

今次金融海嘯，李嘉誠掌舵的和黃，決定減省未落實的投資；而在以往的金融風暴中，長和系則試過逆市擴張。在2001至03年間，經濟不景氣，和黃經歷了幾年凍薪，但當時李嘉誠親自承諾不會裁員，也不會減少在港的投資；遠至1998年金融風暴後，和黃也曾凍薪。

然而2005年初，和黃旗下的和記電訊國際卻因政府收回CDMA牌照，令公司經營前景不明朗，突然宣布裁員750人，佔當時總員工約3900人的兩成。
作者: molamola    時間: 2008-10-24 11:12

I think #13's decision is a more reasonable market indicator for the next 2 to 3 yrs.
作者: 吳孟達    時間: 2008-10-24 11:42

House market should be adjusted after this event.
Only people who need houses will buy houses.
Investors will stay away. So house prices will be adjusted in this way.

Remember that, economic is just a cycle.
We still have new immigrants to the country and we will have people need to buy houses.
So, from the demand and supply point of view, house prices will drop, but will back to normal once everything is digested.... my 2 cents.



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