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標題: an update on US dollars ... [打印本頁]

作者: boss2007 時間: 2009-5-29 10:36 標題: an update on US dollars ...

it is not pretty ... and you probably don't want to listen. Hope you guys still have time
to save your hard-earn savings before the dollar pops ...

this one is really good - it stated "90% of economists and analysts work for large corporations, which more often than not are run by Illuminists. IF you speak out of line you are out of a job. That is why few disagree. We just did about 30 interviews on Fox News and we were told we would no longer be allowed on the network to speak on the Federal Reserve. This is today’s version of freedom of the press-or media. If you do not like it ban it. Economists and analysts face the same problem. Policymakers have charted a course that risks bankrupting the economy and the Fed are at the core of the problem. They are doing everything possible to destroy the US economy."

more @
http://www.theinternationalforec ... lls_Inflation_Rises

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-29 11:26

will you stop all these bull**** if dollar goes back to 1.25 against CAD by August?

作者: shutterbug 時間: 2009-5-29 13:13

it is not pretty ... and you probably don't want to listen. Hope you guys still have time
to save your hard-earn savings before the dollar pops ...

this one is really good - it stated "90% of econom ...
boss2007 發表於 2009-5-29 11:36

do you have a summary of what you're trying to say? no time to read all that stuff

作者: tripixel 時間: 2009-5-29 13:44

will you stop all these bull**** if dollar goes back to 1.25 against CAD by August?
快樂牛郎發表於 2009-5-29 12:26

hi happy cowboy, just wondering what is your opinion on US dollar? cheers.

作者: Catpiano 時間: 2009-5-29 13:47

another mr. T ?

Anyway .. in long run .. ~ 1.2:1 is good for us Canadian ..

Of course, for some jobless people .. ( but somehow .. got $$ to spend ) is a good news when us $ is so weak.

作者: boss2007 時間: 2009-5-29 13:52

回復  -  shutterbug

(1)  There is going to be massive inflation and what China should be doing is dumping dollars by buying gold. They have not anticipated the fall in US stock and bond markets and the derivative bomb. American assets, including bonds, will get badly trashed

(2) Within four years and more likely in two to three years the US will default on treasury and Agency debt ...

(3) gold and silver are rising and the dollar is falling. It is only a matter of time until a crisis of confidence occurs in the Treasury market ...

(4) By the end of the year oil could be $80 a barrel and gasoline over $3.00 a gallon ...

(5) The bond market is not falling because there is deflation in our future, but because the dollar is again tanking. That is why gold and silver is rising. There is also the matter of US debt going into the stratosphere and the increase in interest rates in the demand for higher yields to combat coming inflation.

(6) US Treasuries may face a crowding out process, as governments collectively will have to place $6 trillion in debt this year. That means international business will find it even harder raising money in the future ...  Markets are choking on debt. The end result will be US stagflation and a falling dollar, along with higher yields

作者: peter236 時間: 2009-5-29 13:58

What will happen if China stops lending money to the bankrupt US?

作者: sheep 時間: 2009-5-29 15:27

7# peter236

Very good question.
A million dollar question.
My final answer is
China will follow the footsteps of US

作者: tripixel 時間: 2009-5-29 15:35

US keep on printing money, so the value of the US dollar is weaker, meaning need more of the dollar to buy the same item.
I do believe inflation is going to come. Massive or not? It might not be like the 20's, 40's and the 80's, but anything from 8~10% still hurts..
I think US$ vs Cdn$ at par is very possible, today is at 91 cents. Like Catpiano said, good for us to go shopping down south. And....... if you have investments overseas, your curency rick is already lower. : )

Just my personal thoughts.. : )

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-29 15:45

First of all, CAD is a Petro currency. Its strength is largely correlated with the price of oil. Oil has shot up from 36 to over 65, hence the recent run-up of CAD agains the greenbacks.

For China, what happens if they don't lend to the US? Then it will be a great depression for themselves.

For US, the possibility of default is certainly possible. However, I wouldn't bet anything on it to happen within the next 10 years.

作者: real-mccoy 時間: 2009-5-29 16:10

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/2 ... an.html?ref=opinion

May 29, 2009
Op-Ed Columnist
The Big Inflation Scare
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Suddenly it seems as if everyone is talking about inflation. Stern opinion pieces warn that hyperinflation is just around the corner. And markets may be heeding these warnings: Interest rates on long-term government bonds are up, with fear of future inflation one possible reason for the interest-rate spike.

But does the big inflation scare make any sense? Basically, no — with one caveat I’ll get to later. And I suspect that the scare is at least partly about politics rather than economics.

First things first. It’s important to realize that there’s no hint of inflationary pressures in the economy right now. Consumer prices are lower now than they were a year ago, and wage increases have stalled in the face of high unemployment. Deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger.

So if prices aren’t rising, why the inflation worries? Some claim that the Federal Reserve is printing lots of money, which must be inflationary, while others claim that budget deficits will eventually force the U.S. government to inflate away its debt.

The first story is just wrong. The second could be right, but isn’t.

Now, it’s true that the Fed has taken unprecedented actions lately. More specifically, it has been buying lots of debt both from the government and from the private sector, and paying for these purchases by crediting banks with extra reserves. And in ordinary times, this would be highly inflationary: banks, flush with reserves, would increase loans, which would drive up demand, which would push up prices.

But these aren’t ordinary times. Banks aren’t lending out their extra reserves. They’re just sitting on them — in effect, they’re sending the money right back to the Fed. So the Fed isn’t really printing money after all.

Still, don’t such actions have to be inflationary sooner or later? No. The Bank of Japan, faced with economic difficulties not too different from those we face today, purchased debt on a huge scale between 1997 and 2003. What happened to consumer prices? They fell.

All in all, much of the current inflation discussion calls to mind what happened during the early years of the Great Depression when many influential people were warning about inflation even as prices plunged. As the British economist Ralph Hawtrey wrote, “Fantastic fears of inflation were expressed. That was to cry, Fire, Fire in Noah’s Flood.” And he went on, “It is after depression and unemployment have subsided that inflation becomes dangerous.”

Is there a risk that we’ll have inflation after the economy recovers? That’s the claim of those who look at projections that federal debt may rise to more than 100 percent of G.D.P. and say that America will eventually have to inflate away that debt — that is, drive up prices so that the real value of the debt is reduced.

Such things have happened in the past. For example, France ultimately inflated away much of the debt it incurred while fighting World War I.

But more modern examples are lacking. Over the past two decades, Belgium, Canada and, of course, Japan have all gone through episodes when debt exceeded 100 percent of G.D.P. And the United States itself emerged from World War II with debt exceeding 120 percent of G.D.P. In none of these cases did governments resort to inflation to resolve their problems.

So is there any reason to think that inflation is coming? Some economists have argued for moderate inflation as a deliberate policy, as a way to encourage lending and reduce private debt burdens. I’m sympathetic to these arguments and made a similar case for Japan in the 1990s. But the case for inflation never made headway with Japanese policy makers then, and there’s no sign it’s getting traction with U.S. policy makers now.

All of this raises the question: If inflation isn’t a real risk, why all the claims that it is?

Well, as you may have noticed, economists sometimes disagree. And big disagreements are especially likely in weird times like the present, when many of the normal rules no longer apply.

But it’s hard to escape the sense that the current inflation fear-mongering is partly political, coming largely from economists who had no problem with deficits caused by tax cuts but suddenly became fiscal scolds when the government started spending money to rescue the economy. And their goal seems to be to bully the Obama administration into abandoning those rescue efforts.

Needless to say, the president should not let himself be bullied. The economy is still in deep trouble and needs continuing help.

Yes, we have a long-run budget problem, and we need to start laying the groundwork for a long-run solution. But when it comes to inflation, the only thing we have to fear is inflation fear itself.

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-29 21:20

It's interesting to see how many people listen to these economists and get burned

作者: peter236 時間: 2009-5-29 21:29

It's interesting to see how many people listen to these economists and get burned
快樂牛郎發表於 2009-5-29 22:20

When the Chinese government stops lending money to the US, you will see what will happen to the $US.

作者: tofu 時間: 2009-5-29 21:43

"""When the Chinese government stops lending money to the US, you will see what will happen to the $US."""
do you think it will happen?

作者: peter236 時間: 2009-5-29 22:02

"""When the Chinese government stops lending money to the US, you will see what will happen to the $US."""
do you think it will happen?
tofu 發表於 2009-5-29 22:43

Will you lend money to a country that is printing trillions of dollars of cash, therefore debasing the currency?

作者: tofu 時間: 2009-5-29 23:16

if you don't lend money to that country, you won't able to get back what you already lent? will you still lend money to that country.
do you think chinese government will like to see us$ falling from the sky? you should know how much us$ does chinese gov't hold in her reserve

作者: peter236 時間: 2009-5-29 23:24

if you don't lend money to that country, you won't able to get back what you already lent? will you still lend money to that country.
do you think chinese government will like to see us$ falling from ...
tofu 發表於 2009-5-30 00:16

Many people have been talking about this a lot. They claimed that China, Japan, the Middle East countries and other creditors will not stop lending money to the US.

But the Chinese is already using their $US to buy more gold and other commodities.

Just take a look at gold and oil prices, they have been going up and the $US is crumbling. This shows everyone is moving out of the $US. This phasing out of the $US process will take a while. We should expect inflation in the US.

作者: tofu 時間: 2009-5-30 00:16

yes us$ is phasing out, but it is a long long process. chinese is reduce the us$ proportion, but they still have a lot ar. also, they are losing money on it. oil is paid in us, so would middle east like to see us $ drop.... gov't does support each other, no matter they like it or not, because they connect to each other directly/indirectly.

作者: MyOMy 時間: 2009-5-30 00:42

Come on guys, don't argue, profit from it. Buy gold and enjoy a ride before summer holiday. Can't tell what will happen during July/Aug.

作者: masterbear 時間: 2009-5-30 07:53

few months later back to PAR

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-30 15:30

few months later back to PAR
masterbear 發表於 2009/5/30 07:53

1.2 - 1.25 by August

I stand by it

作者: tripixel 時間: 2009-5-30 22:24

Come on guys, don't argue, profit from it. Buy gold and enjoy a ride before summer holiday. Can't tell what will happen during July/Aug.
MyOMy 發表於 2009-5-30 01:42

c

and don't forget commodities as well : )

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-31 11:16

I have enough exposure to oil already, so I will just wait and see.

作者: peter236 時間: 2009-5-31 14:54

1.2 - 1.25 by August

I stand by it
快樂牛郎發表於 2009-5-30 16:30

So should we buy $US bull etf to make the profit?

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-5-31 15:20

So should we buy $US bull etf to make the profit?
peter236 發表於 2009/5/31 14:54

you never listen, do you

作者: boss2007 時間: 2009-6-16 15:45

The end of American dream !

http://www.truthdig.com/report/i ... empire_is_bankrupt/

作者: news 時間: 2009-8-24 11:25

1 more week til it hits 1.2 - 1.25

作者: Catpiano 時間: 2009-8-24 11:30

1 more week til it hits 1.2 - 1.25
news 發表於 2009-8-24 12:25

Why??

So .. I should buy some US $ now ? it is only 1.08 .... ( ~ 1.09 to buy )

作者: 快樂牛郎 時間: 2009-8-24 11:47

haha
oh well
one way or another (currency or stocks), the last two months were paradise for bulls

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