原帖由 bugspray 於 2008-6-10 11:31 發表 
If Obama wins then the war will end. Thats's what he promises. While McCain of the Republican side wants to keep fighting until Iraq is pacified. Yes I'm betting on Obama.
Then Oil stock will rem ...
Usually, war ends with war. Obama withdraws troops doesn't necessary ends the war (it stops only American bleeding). On the contary, it will likly to introduce more wars and uncertainties to the region.
I think the ever rising oil price is mainly driven by weak US$. To stop draining money in Iraq will help American dollar but it will take time. A couple of years, may be. Besides, Obama has no experience. It took Bill Clinton a couple years to learn (Bill Clinton was also 行運醫生醫症尾). Suppose Obama is smarter than Bill Clinton, I bet it will also take the same time for Obama. Canadaian will be lucky if Obama not driving the US economy to deeper recession. Whether you want to beleieve or not, American recessions will drive a lot of economies into recessions too. Paradocially, recession will bring down the oil price significantly.
So, don't bet on Obama, If Obama is going to win, I'm going to sell. Won't buy at last a ywar or so of his term. That's my 吹水 point of view. |