快樂牛郎

It's not always a good idea to make RRSP contributions.
I never had the time to build a Markov chain model to test different scenarios.  Has anyone done one or seen one?

快樂牛郎

原帖由 Littleprince 於 2009/2/21 21:01 發表
Markov chain 似乎係計 PROBABILITY 多D 窩﹐ correct me if I'm wrong... 普通 ARIMA MODEL 唔得咩﹖

To me, it's all about probabilities.  Future tax rates, future employment income, OAS clawbacks, investment performance, inflation, and many other variables.

I don't invest in things like RRSP myself.  I am skeptical about the scheme and it's obvious that Federal funding is not sustainable.  I will not be surprised if OAS clawbacks will begin at a much lower amount in the future.  Another reason is that I expect my income to escalate in the next several years.  So I will wait until my income gets beyond the next bracket.

快樂牛郎

原帖由 ACC-HE 於 2009/2/21 21:47 發表
I thought there is a site that can tell the upper limit of RRSP one can buy...

anyone knows where is it?

CRA

快樂牛郎

對我來講
買RRSP既師奶同買雷曼迷債既師奶係一樣

唔知幾十年後會唔會有D RRSP風暴
搞到D師奶好夢成空

快樂牛郎

頭先手痕隨便計下一個簡化既scenario

ROI:  4.5% per year
Salary: 50,000 at age 25, 8% increase per year from age 25 to 35, 4% per year afterwards (this is reasonable after promotion and bonus is considered)

annual contribution to RRSP  (9% or 10,000)
This is only 50% of the maximum you can contribute

當你25歲第一年買
去到65歲RRSP已經累積到121萬
而家平均壽命係80-85
所以你得15-20年withdraw
一年要拎起碼90000-110000出黎
就算到時tax rate同而家一樣
你最後都要倒貼
更加未計埋OAS clawback

快樂牛郎

原帖由 Littleprince 於 2009/2/22 13:00 發表

你唔使交稅兼有退稅拿﹐遲D先買喇。。。(是否因你有學費 CLAIM﹖)

學樓上說的﹐你無需擔心 RSP 海嘯﹐係無呢樣野既。。。原因係 RSP 係可以放 SAVINGS 或者定期﹐隨便你的﹐你可以選最安全的銀行﹐而且加拿大銀行有保險﹐安全過你 ...

Which bank do you work at?

快樂牛郎

原帖由 Littleprince 於 2009/2/22 16:59 發表
我不是在銀行做的。

不過你D口氣十足係幫銀行宣傳

快樂牛郎

原帖由 peter236 於 2009/2/26 14:51 發表
Are there any type of bonds that pay more than GIC?

I recommend you to stick with your checking account.