回復 32# 大C姐
I think we have been talking about rental yield here, not rental prices.
Of course if the overal housing prices goes up, rental prices will be forced to go up too. However if housing price increase is going up a lot faster than rental affordability, it will only means that the rental yield will be pushed down even lower.
Aka, if a house is $600k and the rent is $2000, that's 4% annualized yield. Say housing goes up as you said, to $700k say next year. The rent have to go up of course, but it wont' be by as much as a percentage as the housing cost, because there's simply less enthusiasm in the rental market as compared to the housing market. Say the rent is increased to $2200, which to the renter who barely had a raise last year, a huge increase. The home owner doesn't get all the pricing flexibility here either, the renter will threaten leave and rent at Abbortsford if he has to, simply because he just doesn't have that much money. $2200 on $700k, that's an annualized yield of 3.77%. So the rent went up, and the yield went down.
The argument that when housing cost (home prices/taxes/interest, etc) going up, it'd force home buyers to rent, hence pushing up rental rate, is not a sure thing, and in most historical precedence false. It'd usually take a larger increase in housing prices, so much so to significantly force would-be buyers to rent. The rental price hike as a percentage will generally be less than the increase of housing prices in such cases, hence actually reducing rental yield, instead of increasing it. Affordability is simply too much a barrier to put much upward pressure on rental prices, as it's the locals that work for 32k a year that rents, which is rather inelastic compared to the seemingly infinite wealth that foriegn investors and immigrants have in buying up houses.
It's very simple to see. As the Vancouver housing prices heats up, rental yield goes down. This is the effect of foreign demand bidding up prices and the local, whose earning power stays constant, turns to renting cheaper and cheaper places based on affordability. |
發表於 2010-7-14 12:19
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