US Treasuries and USD

BiscottiGelato

Just want to hear what you think will happen to USD and US T-Bills in the next year or 2, and for the longer term (5 - 10 years). What kind of scenario do you see happening, why and how?

快樂牛郎

加幣來講
長線應該會係1.1水位左右

BiscottiGelato

Just due to inflationary pressure? How about in terms of if people will still buy the T-Bill at all, especially by foreign governments or big corporations? Risk of defaulting?

Catpiano

I hope we can answer your question here ...  

sko

Just what u think jeh. Blow ha water ja ma. i expect everyone gives a diff answer for a diff scenario ga bor

快樂牛郎

原帖由 BiscottiGelato 於 2009/3/14 01:28 發表
Just due to inflationary pressure? How about in terms of if people will still buy the T-Bill at all, especially by foreign governments or big corporations? Risk of defaulting?

Whether the US gov default or not is not a question. Do you have a choice? There are many risks in this world that you know exist, but can't avoid.

tofu

risk of default is low, since foreign governments need to support it.  just like china, it holds too much already, either buy more or loss all, what will you do.  compare to other investments, risk of us t-bill is still low, so mf or big corp will still use it to balance their portfolio.  in theory, us t bill is considerate a risk-free investment.
in short term, us exchange rate is still high, but long term should be close to 1-1