本帖最後由 cicilau 於 2009-11-5 02:55 編輯
And my answer to you is: case study / anecdotal "evidence" from "victim family" does NOT count when it comes to establishing a causal relationship between A and B. Just because B occurs after A, does NOT mean that A has caused B. The diagnosis of autism is difficult for a family to swallow, and humans have an inherent need to find out a DEFINITIVE REASON for why something has occurred. When no one can tell a family why their child has autism, the family will go on a journey of attributing the illness to something. Research has found, however, that families' attribution / explanation of why an illness occurs is often ERRONEOUS AND UNSCIENTIFIC.
I have watched it with my own eyes. Didn't I tell you that I work with children in mental health? I also do research with families whose children have been diagnosed with serious illnesses, looking at how they explain the causes of the illness. What I can tell you is that: misinformation like "vaccine causes autism" creates MORE HARM to children because it has no scientific basis whatsoever, and parents, by blaming autism on something that isn't even a cause, will be misled into looking into treatment options that are totally not effective. It's unfortunate that AFTER TONS OF RESEARCH PROVING THAT VACCINES DO NOT CAUSE AUTISM, THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE LIKE YOU PERPETUATING A MYTH, A LIE, OVER THE INTERNET, JUST BASED ON ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE, which further put children at risk. So a link from Youtube documenting a NEWS STORY done by CNN is strong enough evidence to refute PUBLISHED, PEER-REVIEWED, EMPIRICAL RESEARCH from the past 20 years that disproved the "vaccine theory" ???
By the way, the increase in prevalence in autism has to do with better, more sensitive DIAGNOSTIC INSTRUMENTS, which simply were not available 10 to 20 years ago. At that time, people with serious autism were diagnosed with mental retardation or other forms of developmental disorders. Those who were higher functioning might be diagnosed with other stuff, or simply were not offered help because NO ONE KNEW THAT THEY HAD AUTISM. The conceptualization of autism in the medical field has greatly improved over the past 20 years, making it easier for clinicians like us to recognize, understand, and diagnose it. Just because the rise of autism COINCIDES with the use of certain vaccines, does not mean that they have any causal relationship in between. If this argument is correct, then in that case, the rise of autism also coincides with the stock market rising, increase in immigration and diversity in North America, the advance of the internet, etc......so are you gonna say that autism is caused by the stock market, that we should ban immigration cos' immigration causes autism, or that we should stop using the internet cos' obviously after more and more people begin to use the internet, more and more people are diagnosed with autism!
"Correlation does NOT imply causation", the first rule you gotta keep in mind when it comes to intepreting research and understanding causal relationships. |
發表於 2009-11-4 01:11
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