中國準備離棄北韓 不反對由首爾主導兩韓統一 北京, 平壤, 兄弟

Lik

http://www1.hk.apple.nextmedia.c ... amp;art_id=14718903

中國準備離棄北韓 不反對由首爾主導兩韓統一

朝鮮半島在南韓延坪島被炸後局勢劍拔弩張，國際社會促請中國向北韓施壓，北京卻一直未對這個共產兄弟國加以譴責。但「維基解密」（ WikiLeaks）網站最新公開的美國外交電報顯示，北京表面上對北韓不離不棄，其實早興放棄北韓的念頭，新一代中國領導人不再視平壤為有用或可靠盟友，甚至認為應由南韓主導兩韓統一。中國前副外長何亞非更私下批評北韓去年試射導彈和核試，像個「被寵壞的孩子要吸引大人注意」，旨在跟美國對話。

據「維基解密」公開的外交電報，自北韓去年一而再、再而三試射導彈和核試，中國已開始對金正日政權越來越沮喪。今年 2月，南韓時任副外長千英宇向美國駐韓大使斯蒂芬斯（ Kathleen Stephens）透露，新一代中國領導人已不再視北韓為有用或可靠盟友，不會冒險再燃起朝鮮半島戰火。  

「被寵壞孩子吸引大人注意」
千英宇引述之前在六方會談跟兩名中國高官的私人對話說，中國新一代領導層逐漸認同北韓作為緩衝國的價值所餘無幾，若北韓政權倒下，北京固然不歡迎美軍駐守原北韓領土，但只要統一後的韓國不敵視中國，北京不反對由首爾主導兩韓統一，跟美國建立友好聯盟，因為龐大的貿易和勞工出口機會，多少抵銷了中國對兩韓統一的憂慮。

千英宇排除中國軍事介入的可能性，因中國的策略性經濟利益不在北韓，而是在美國、日本和南韓。對於國際社會一再要求中國向北韓發揮影響力，他指北京根本無法游說平壤改變政策，也沒決心以經濟手段迫使北韓改變，中國官員已承認外界往往高估了中國對北韓的影響力。

以去年北韓去年射試導彈和核試為例，中國時任副外長何亞非去年 4月曾私下跟美國駐華外交人員批評，北韓此舉像個「被寵壞的孩子要吸引大人注意」。北京之後向平壤表達不滿，並施壓要北韓重返談判桌，但平壤完全當耳邊風。中國時任駐哈薩克大使程國平去年 6月跟美國駐哈薩克大使會面時，直言「北韓核活動威脅全球的安全」。

「我們或許不喜歡，但他們是鄰國」
中國和北韓領袖雖不時互訪，但關係其實沒想像中親密。何亞非去年 9月與美國副國務卿斯坦伯格（ James Steinberg）會面，就企圖淡化中國總理溫家寶訪問平壤的行程，指「我們或許不喜歡他們……但他們是鄰國」。

事實上，從曝光的外交電報可見，中國有時甚至不甚了解北韓的事，例如誰是金正日繼承人、北韓的濃縮鈾計劃及核試，反映出北韓對中國這個最重要盟國亦非推心置腹。以金正日接班人為例，多名中國學者都大跌眼鏡，他們都估計北韓將實施集體領導，因為金正日長子金正男太像花花公子，次子金正哲喜歡打機多於從政，幼子金正恩太年輕了。

現在北韓領袖金正日已欽點了幼子金正恩作接班人，但南韓認為北韓經濟已崩塌，政權也會在金正日逝世兩至三年後倒下，中國官員相信屆時能吸納約 30萬名北韓難民，若他們全部同一時間湧至，中方或需出動軍隊封鎖邊境。

「他們搞錯了中國的觀點」

電文又顯示，雖然中國、美國和南韓都同意兩韓統一，但如何達致這目標，卻沒有共識，北京和華盛頓都指望對方牽頭。中共對外聯絡部部長王家瑞去年 12月跟美國副國務卿伯恩斯（ William Burns）表明，「北韓因為國內情況和國際環境，需要在跟美國關係上取得突破」。他重申，美國跟北韓敵對關係持續，不符合美國利益，因此華府須展示無意推動北韓政權倒台，換取北韓改變態度，最終承諾不會擁有核武。但美國始終認為，中國對北韓影響力較大，應由中方牽頭。

南韓有分析員認為，電文洩露了中國官員對北韓政府的批評，以及金正日一旦死後北韓政權會否瓦解的揣測，將對北韓造成震盪，甚至會導致北韓今後政策有變，自然拒絕談判。但北京大學國際關係教授王東（音譯）認為，電文指中國有意放棄北韓，甚至支持南韓主導兩韓統一，當中必定有誤解。他說：「對中國來說，北韓是戰策問題，不是金融或經濟。他們搞錯了中國的觀點。」

英國《衞報》/法新社/德新社

BiscottiGelato

我只會咁講：同啲低能擦鞋狗慢慢講道理簡直係徙時間。明知佢係賤人都當佢唔係嘅話，呢啲叫做低能又得，叫做 ...
Lik 發表於 2010-12-1 13:04

I never thought of that before. Maybe that's why I don't follow your posts past page 2/3 usually... LOL

Lik

我只會咁講：同啲低能擦鞋狗慢慢講道理簡直係徙時間。明知佢係賤人都當佢唔係嘅話，呢啲叫做低能又得，叫做迂腐亦可以。

其他野之前已經講咗，唔再重複喇。

-力

BiscottiGelato

屌，你係低能能，唔通我仲會讚你係天才呀？戇鳩。


Perhaps I only have good points some of the time,  ...
Lik 發表於 2010-12-1 10:27

I personally don't care if you swear like a bum, but sometimes LYKs and LYK admins happens to do so, esp when the swear words are used explicitly for personal attacks. Your personal attacks does shows your lack of class tho... Not that I take anything you say seriously anyways... It's difficult to take any arguments seriously when every other sentence is there just to attack someone. Someone who doesn't carry your view is not moronic and stupid by default. A person who can't keep his/her cool and stay on topic is definately not worthy to conduct a logical discussion/debate with tho.

peter236

LOL~

「爆粗就一定俾人歧視」啲咁低能嘅說話都枉你講得出口。我都費事教精你囉。

-力 ...
Lik 發表於 2010-12-1 11:54

You moron jai.

Lik

唔爆粗口就未必係聖人，爆粗口就一定卑人鄙視gar la! 尤其係你言論無point時
爆粗就更加給人用常理無法説服人後要用旁門左道黎譁衆取寵嘅感覺，好樣衰囉！
fy789 發表於 2010-12-1 11:14

LOL~

「爆粗就一定俾人歧視」啲咁低能嘅說話都枉你講得出口。我都費事教精你囉。

-力

Lik

Lastly, I have noticed that you have a habit to name-calling others when you have no
points, and that is un-civilized. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM CONTINUAL BULLYING AND
INSULTING OTHER FORUM USER. Remember to take your medications ah!
fy789 發表於 2010-12-1 00:42

屌，你係低能能，唔通我仲會讚你係天才呀？戇鳩。

Sometimes Lik has a point, sometimes he doesn't, but he has to bully and name-calling any chance he got, which makes his statements way less credible.  If your post doesn't go "I love Lik or I 100% agree Lik", then you will be called idiot, dog, slave, and etc...

I wonder if Lik can learn how to complicate better.
Prelude 發表於 2010-12-1 04:51

Perhaps I only have good points some of the time, and perhaps it's just that you do not agree with my point. But I know for certain that 99.9% of the time, you do NOT have a point.

I can most certainly communicate better, but I dunno if you could ever learn to do the same la.

Lik even got banned once before for talking like an a$$ before (back in the days the Admin even bothers checking this forum). Go figure.
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-12-1 09:57

唔爆粗就係聖人？講粗口就係爛仔？


同一個正常人去理性討論，我自然半句粗話都唔會講。但係同啲死PK、賤人、是非顛倒嘅擦鞋狗交鋒嘅時候，我又使乜對佢客氣？我唔diu柒、羞辱佢啲咁無恥嘅言論同行為就簡直就係對自己唔住。


-力

BiscottiGelato

Sometimes Lik has a point, sometimes he doesn't, but he has to bully and name-calling any chance he  ...
Prelude 發表於 2010-12-1 04:51

Agreed. But heck, not like it's the first time. Lik even got banned once before for talking like an a$$ before (back in the days the Admin even bothers checking this forum). Go figure.

Just take his degratory remarks as entertainment. Isn't it funny how people can be so insecure and need to resort to calling other names to make himself feel better?

Prelude

Sometimes Lik has a point, sometimes he doesn't, but he has to bully and name-calling any chance he got, which makes his statements way less credible.  If your post doesn't go "I love Lik or I 100% agree Lik", then you will be called idiot, dog, slave, and etc...

I wonder if Lik can learn how to complicate better.