BiscottiGelato

Oil price probably will sky rocket due to this in the medium term? Any long oil plays you can recommend?

peter236

Oil price probably will sky rocket due to this in the medium term? Any long oil plays you can recomm ...
BiscottiGelato 發表於 2010-6-1 23:07

Petro China is quite good?

快樂牛郎

And don't joke, North Americans cannot live without oil. Would Americans want another environmental disaster or a 7-year war with the Middle East?

I am already drown in this Obama fiasco.  However, I don't think Obama or the Americans can afford to have oil going much higher.  I wouldn't bet on the oil price to go above $80 any time soon.  If they are gonna stop drilling completely, I guess there will be turmoil and a double recession.

mcjohnjohn

Petro China is quite good?
peter236 發表於 2010-6-2 15:41

呢隻股可以長hold.

kits013

fuxking BP
a lot of us don't deserve this
快樂牛郎 發表於 2010-6-1 21:37

it was Transocean's fault
bp just ate the "dead cat"

Lik

I am already drown in this Obama fiasco.  However, I don't think Obama or the Americans can afford ...
快樂牛郎 發表於 2010-6-2 00:34

Sounds to me like someone got greedy, but got burnt instead when his energy stocks took a nose dive.

BP and the other two contractors involved (one responsible for the fail-safe anti-leak mechanism, and another one whose function I can't remember off the top of my head) all deserve to be slammed big time. In the overall scheme of things, I seem to remember reading that the overall Gulf oil production only accounts for a fairly low percentage of US consumption. Additionally, while the Obama administration has issued an extended (or was it indefinite? can't remember la) ban on any new off shore oil explorations/drilling, I also remember reading that insiders remain hopeful about such bans only being limited to deep sea oil operations, meaning that shallower operations will eventually be allowed.

The real danger is, speculators would love to jump on any opportunities that allows them to jack up the price of oil. But I quite agree with Mr. Cow that given US' still fragile (but recovering) economy, the US government is gonna pull some strings and flex some of its influential muscles to ensure that oil prices won't climb too high.

-Lik

快樂牛郎

Imposing a Memotorium does not increase the safety of deep sea drilling.  It only kills off hundreds of thousands of jobs and the related industries.  The technology BP used was unsafe and outdated, so they deservingly got punished.  But there are many other prudent drillers out there who have done nothing wrong and got slammed.

Lik

From a risk assessment's point of view, the BP accident has shown us that when something pops at 5000 feet below sea level, any sort of slip up is extremely difficult to contain, let alone repair. It doesn't matter what kind of technology is being used -- water pressure at 5000 feet below sea level is water pressure at 5000 feet below sea level.

From a logistics point of of view, the Gulf accident was already a most fortunate one. The Gulf is literally in the US's own backyard, and while the weather could get rough and stormy, every resource is readily available. If another deep sea accident were to happen along other US coastline, the accident response would be far slower, with equipments and supplies being far more difficult to transport to the affected areas. Alaska, in particular, would turn into a major disaster area, both because of its location and because of its weather conditions.

What I am saying is, in light of the BP accident, the ban on deep sea drilling make sense because the risks are far too great.

-Lik

快樂牛郎

What I am saying is, in light of the BP accident, the ban on deep sea drilling make sense because the risks are far too great.

There's a risk to everything.  The fact that we have had this spill probably means that we won't have a similar spill in 20, 30 years.  Politicians like to make knee-jerk reactions to accidents without thinking through the various outcomes.

BiscottiGelato

Interesting analysis on the situation guys. Let's see if the oil price will really be contained despite a drilling ban.

I agree it's knee jerk reaction to ban off shore drilling. Only interested in capitalizing on any medium/long term plays (short term plays you can't beat the pros). It seems that it's a gamble at this point tho. I'll stay out for a little more. Thanks