Let me be more specific. In order for house prices to continue to appreciate quickly, some or all of the following conditions need to be true:
1) the global economy has to continue expanding at the pace that we've seen in the last 10 years, particularly in China and the US. The way I see it, US has no more room to grow with mountains of debt and the decreasing quality of education. China, even though there is still quite some room to grow, have huge bottlenecks ahead.
2) Cheap credit. Yes, credit is still cheap right now, but as soon as the economy shows signs of recovery, interest rates need to go up.
3) population growth. Population has surged in the past 40 years, particularly with the baby boomers fueling the economy. However, with so many baby boomers near retirement, eventually they will die or sell their houses. On the other hand, several countries are experiencing record low birth rate. Eventually demand will flatten and supply will go up.
To me, housing supply will not be nearly as scarce as people think. However, any types of real resources that we cannot live without, copper, oil, water, etc, are way more valuable than land. |
發表於 2010-7-16 22:57
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